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| The evolution of Japan's population since 1870, with estimates until 2011. Source: Jecowa/Wikipedia |
Recent studies have revealed yet another indicator of great concern for Japan. With her economic and diplomatic standing in international politics no longer riding the waves of optimism that characterised the 1970s and 1980s, demographics have been attracting greater attention and casting further doubts into the future.
As several newspapers have published these past two days, long-terms prospects see Japan losing a staggering 30% of the population. The Mainichi Shimbun reported:
The estimate by the ministry's research organization, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, also projected that peopled aged 65 or older will account for 39.9 percent of total population in 2060, rising from 23.0 percent in 2010.
The institute, which provides the 50-year demographic forecast approximately every five years, said the pace of population decline has slightly slowed since the previous estimate in 2006. In the latest estimate, the institute predicts a 2055 population of 91.93 million, compared to the forecast of 89.93 million in 2006.
Meanwhile, The Asahi Shimbun wrote that:
Japan's population is expected to decline by 30 percent to below 90 million people by 2060, with two out of every five people aged 65 or older, a government agency said on Jan. 30, underlining the financial burden on one of the world's fastest-ageing societies.
It must be noted that the estimates have reviewed their findings on a slighter more downward trend because of last year's earthquake and tsunami disasters. Nevertheless the conclusions are obvious: Japan will have to fundamentally address this issue should it want to maintain the levels of security, stability and prosperity it has enjoyed in recent decades.
The implications for her defence and security should be particularly emphasized. I shall only note a few questions that ought be addressed:
- How will the SDF attract more recruits to fill in current positions when 2 out of 5 Japanese will be over 65?
- What impact will it have on the defence budget, as expenses with social welfare and health are set to skyrocket?
- Will security priorities shift to more non-traditional threats and risks, as economic decline and political stagnation might lead to social unrest, controlling a bigger immigrant community, more assertive responses to regional pressure and overall change of security (mis)perceptions?
- What consequences do these prospects forecast to Japan's strategic planning and relation with the world?
What these recent estimates reveal is nothing new. However, I am yet to discover a good piece of scholarship which reflects on the linkages between demographics and defence and security in Japan. The Defense White Papers also fail to acknowledge the importance of this issue in any clear fashion. Suggestions would be most welcomed in the comments section.
4 comments:
When I started my Masters course, I considered looking at the aging population as a security issue, but I decided not to pursue it as it is a pretty difficult topic to get into with only a year of research.
Still, the first question you raise, "How will the SDF attract more recruits to fill in current positions when 2 out of 5 Japanese will be over 65?" is one that bothers me immensely.
The key, I feel, is in boosting the popularity of the SDF as a career choice - something we're seeing in the post-tsunami popularity boost.
If they can't do this, then it will necessitate a severe drop in personnel, particularly in the GSDF. Having to maintain the defence budget at social welfare increases will probably lead to this sort of reduction at any rate.
One unknown variable would an increase in the birth rate. The likelihood of that I leave to the experts.
As it has been noted several times at JSW, SDF's recruitment ads reflect not only a particular mindset insofar as connecting the "military" with the population is concerned but also an increasing emphasis on a greater appeal to the young masses. As you've mentioned, the SDF as a career choice is a narrative that must be construed in order to appeal to younger generations, hence the seemingly displaced messages of the said ads.
As for the question of increasing the birth rate, we are talking of a particularly sensitive issue that affects all polities, not just Japan's. We're also talking about huge figures, for the current birth rate would almost need to double to guarantee a generational replacement level. But with all estimates indicating 2 out of 5 Japanese becoming over 65, it's tremendously difficult to even fathom the impact this will have in society at large, much less in the microcosm of SDF's recruitment pool.
Even after the rather severe projected depopulation to 2050, Japan will still have more working-age people than the current populations of Canada and Australia combined.
Japan's primary national security problem is at the coast guard level and whatever ABM defenses it can erect against DPRK's adventurism in that sphere. It's no longer in the same league as the PRC and even if every family has 10 kids, China will win any battlefield contest Japan chooses to fight -- they currently have 40 million men aged 15-19 alone.
Japan's current population density is 10X that of the US's, if you ask me Japan could use fewer mouths to feed and other resource burdens that come with population.
Real estate valuations should continue to fall as vacancy factors ineluctably eat away at the still sky-high land valuations Japan's overcrowdedness has produced. This will be good for Japan, since all economic rents (like land rent) eat away at productive enterprise.
"We're also talking about huge figures, for the current birth rate would almost need to double to guarantee a generational replacement level."
In 2095 Japan will have the population it had in 1940. I fail to see what particular disaster this brings. There really won't even be that many more old people to take care of compared to now -- around 2040 this will peak at under 40M, up from 30M of today.
Young people will decline from ~20M to ~10M, so Japan will have to pivot some resources from raising young people to taking care of the old.
Not really that big a deal, and since Japan has an underemployment problem I think Japanese could use the extra work.
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