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Following yesterday's article on Russian presidential elections and what Putin's victory will mean to Japan-Russia relations, Nippon.com has published the English version of a very insightful commentary on the subject by Suzuki Yoshikatsu. The title is "Prospects for Japan-Russia Relations After Putin's Return to Power". The author is a senior political analyst for Jiji News and has worked in New York and Washington DC, in addition to his academic education in Waseda University.
We seem to have, coincidentally, expressed a few similar points that are noteworthy, the first of which being that Putin's latest comments on the interest to improve bilateral relations are not at all shallow. Although Suzuki primarily preferred to allude to Sergei Lavrov's controlling hand at wheel of the Russian Foreign Ministry, instead of considering him Putin's diplomacy poster boy , the bottom line is the same:
"What this means [Constitutional amendment extending presidential terms from 4 to 6 years], according to a source at Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is that the return of President Putin, the Russian politician who knows Japan best, would provide Japan with an excellent opportunity. On the other hand, if Japan fails to establish a relationship of trust with Putin’s third government, unhealthy relations with Russia could be extended for as long as twelve years."
It is also interesting to note that Suzuki's view on Russia's credibility as an international partner, and for that matter Japan's views as well, differ from those held on other regional partners, most notably North Korea. Despite the different interests, there is a common platform for dialogue and understanding that can be promoted and used to improving bilateral ties. In this regard, Mr. Suzuki noted that:
"As summarized on the website of Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, both ministers agreed that 'while the two countries’ standpoints differ considerably, based on the growing atmosphere of mutual trust the issue will not be shelved, and that debate toward resolving the issue will continue in a calm environment based on the principles of law and justice and the two countries’ various agreements and documents thus far.' The two sides did not step further into the controversy, however, and maintained a posture of self-restraint throughout."
And this is where it gets interesting. Whereas my article referred to Putin's savoir faire in dealing with foreign dignitaries and the international press, Suzuki instead opted to reflect on Lavrov's traits as a diplomatic towering figure steering Russia's Foreign Ministry in today's murky waters. Here are the complimentary remarks the author made about Lavrov:
"Foreign Minister Lavrov, once characterized by former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as a natural-born debater who won’t shy away from an argument, is known among Japanese diplomatic personnel for his seemingly arrogant and provocative comments and behavior. He projected a different persona, however, at the joint press conference following ministerial summit in late January.
He carefully explained the cooperative agreements reached by the two countries, touching lightly on the issue of the Northern Territories only at the end of his remarks, which were mild in tone. He expressed hope that a mutually acceptable means of resolving the issue could be found, indicated an intention to approach the matter dispassionately, and said efforts would be made to avoid provocative statements.
The mere fact that Lavrov has lasted for more than seven years as Russia’s foreign minister testifies to his diplomatic finesse and remarkable eloquence. Near the end of the press conference, he abruptly faced forward and leaned toward the microphone to say: 'Let me reiterate that while [we seek resumption of] the six-party talks, Russia also insists that the issue of abductees must be resolved. We support Japan’s position entirely.'
The high-level foreign ministry official with whom I was sitting was visibly astonished. 'That’s the first time Lavrov has said anything like that about the issue of abductees,' he said. 'It shows he’s trying to improve his image with the Japanese public. That was definitely done for Putin’s benefit.'"
To make it a perfect match of 4 coincidental points out of 4, Suzuki would only have to mention the 'China factor'. To my relief, no mention of it is to be found in the article, being replaced instead with far more enlightening reflections on some of the internal divides that characterize Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs policy-making. The observations are made when assessing the possible outcomes of new talks on the territorial disputes (Northern Territories/Kuril Islands). The Japanese media, Suzuki claims, can be divided along the lines of two distinct camps: those advocating the return of all four islands; or those contemplating a compromise with only two of the islands being returned, or a 50-50 split that could save both countries from more hazardous negotiations.
Concerning this potential divide and how it can, in the future affect the government's diplomatic posture in this matter, Suzuki states that:
"One factor at work here is that an anti-foreign ministry faction, whose members include former Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Suzuki Muneo and former Ministry of Foreign Affairs senior analyst Satō Masaru, is asserting its views on these issues.
There are complicated personal connections involved as well, foremost among them those between Minister for Foreign Affairs Gemba and his predecessor Maehara Seiji, who is the current chairman of the Democratic Party of Japan Policy Research Council. The two were classmates at the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management. Both have begun to entertain hopes of attaining the office of prime minister, and they are now engaged in a growing rivalry concerning relations with Russia. The fact that Foreign Minister Lavrov followed up his ministerial meeting by meeting separately both with former Prime Minister Mori Yoshirō, who is well acquainted with Prime Minister Putin, and with former Foreign Minister Maehara, suggests that Lavrov is looking ahead to Russia’s relations with Japan after Putin is restored to power."
It is a timely and interesting read for those concerned about the future of Japan-Russia relations and the making of what some consider to be a new Asian century. After shamelessly piggybacking Mr. Suzuki's opinions - though I must say I published my post prior to learning about the said article -, let us see how Putin will enact the first acts of a renewed play taking the leading role ahead of Russia.
If you want to read more on some of the earliest comments on "Putin 2.0" and possible foreign policy implications, please refer to the following websites:
"The End of the 'Reset'", at Foreign Affairs
"Putin's Pyrrhic victory", at American Enterprise Institute
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